Chess olympiads analyses

Purpose

To collect analyses about the chess olympiads and other team tournaments in chess.

Top10 country average rating (Fide) vs average country rating at the olympiad

2018 Batumi

I tried to write this article quickly in reddit, but reddit didn't accept the content, so I went to my actual best article platform, wikidot.
Nowadays (2018-09-26) is the time of the 43rd chess olympiad.

It happens from time to time that for several reason this or that strong player won't participate to the olympiad for his national team. For example the current world chess champion and FIDE #1 in the ratings, Magnus Carlsen, does not participate because he is preparing for the world chess championship match in November. Putting that event over the national team event.

The question is, how much is the "potential of a country" is brought to the olympiad? Compared to the best 10 country players, a positive elo difference means that most of the very top players are there.

In my opinion a strong nation cannot just rely on few individuals. A strong nation should have a relatively large pool of talents. This is valid not only for chess but for whatever team competition.

Therefore using the fide average for the top10 active players is a good indicator of the potential that a nation has if few top players decline their participation to the olympiad (or FIDE world team championship).

So let's compare how things are using the FIDE rating for countries of this month (at the moment I am unaware whether there are archives for comparisons in the past).

Sources:

Nation Fide top10 avg sept 2018 43rd Chess Olympiad Avg Difference Olympiad - top10 fide
USA 2701 2772 71
RUS 2744 2764 20
CHN 2710 2756 46
AZE 2674 2748 20
IND 2664 2724 60
UKR 2672 2698 26
FRA 2642 2688 46
ARM 2644 2688 44
ENG 2634 2688 54
ISR 2627 2676 49
POL 2639 2673 34
HUN 2649 2673 24
NED 2637 2671 34
GEO1 2597 2637 40
CZE 2591 2633 42
GER 2618 2628 10
BLR 2568 2615 47
CRO 2579 2609 30
PER 2544 2602 58
ARG 2546 2600 34
ROU 2568 2600 32
TUR 2558 2600 42
IRI 2544 2599 55
ESP 2610 2596 -14
GRE 2555 2595 40
SLO 2530 2592 62
VIE 2505 2576 71
CAN 2500 2575 75
BRA 2551 2567 16
MDA 2461 2564 103
LAT 2501 2564 63
SWE 2537 2556 19
CUB 2561 2555 -6
ITA 2534 2554 20
AUT 2503 2552 49
UZB 2532 2547 15
KAZ 2494 2546 52
NOR 2575 2543 -32
SUI 2506 2542 36
EGY 2476 2536 60
AUS 2491 2523 32
GEO2 2597 2516 -81
MKD 2465 2514 49
ISL 2502 2513 11
SRB 2566 2509 -57

So it seems that most of the countries are bringing a potential that is even better than the average of their top10 players. I would presume the same happened in the past, but I can confirm this only using past data, not available at the moment.

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